Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2014 23:29:55 GMT
WSJ$2 Billion is probably one of the biggest money-hats I've ever seen MS throw at a studio "semi-publicly". (#'s may be off, deal might not happen, rumors may be fictional, etc.) $2,000,000,000 ... ... that's a load of Chick-o-Sticks. Lets not kid ourselves, I think that the majority of that number is directly related to the Minecraft IP. Not saying he shouldn't do it... everyone has their price, but maybe Markus and Peter should have a heart to heart about the implications beforehand. Either way, Well done Mojang!
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Post by Danjal on Sept 10, 2014 1:31:43 GMT
Too early to judge, too many unknowns and not enough confirmations.
As for speculation. Sequels seem unlikely as any change in scenery would mean an increase in price and decrease in playerbase (higher spec machine needed). Not to mention the likely "exclusive launch" for Xbone.
Minecraft gets lots of its success from the community. A formula that should Microsoft decide to mess with it because they want a slice of the pie, would likely fall apart at a rapid pace. I just imagine Microsoft trying to but off the successfull mods and trying to sell them as DLC - you think anyone would pay for that? Restricting streaming/recording access would meet a similar fate if these people decide its not worth their time and effort (which most of them will do). Really only the 'big ones' can't afford it, as its their livelyhood at risk, but even they'd know that this would only run for so long.
Which leaves the question - what does Microsoft intend to do with this? How do they intend to make money off of it. Frankly the most hilarious reason I can think of is that this is Microsoft trying to stab Sony under the belt. With Minecraft going to PS4 and potentially Vita, this'd be a great opportunity for them to get a slice out of THAT pie.
And its one that would have the least effect on the community.
Something else to imagine is that Mojang/Notch might have been seeing a decrease in sales on their side and they figure its the best time to cash out. It wouldn't be too hard for them to "start a new studio" should they so desire, especially with an additional cash-injection like this. And like Microsoft, Mojang stands to lose a LOT if they were to mess with the formula that Minecraft's success is build upon. So what better way than to cut your losses, make a bunch of extra cash and then go on your own way.
From a business perspective, Mojang can only make so much money off of the indirect success of Minecraft. All the servers, youtubers, streamers and modders combined don't bring in a lot of direct revenue. And there's only so many sales you can make, with the PC and Xbox/Xbone platform likely already being saturated for the most part.
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Post by hardly on Sept 10, 2014 2:29:12 GMT
I think this is a shit buy for MS as minecraft is tapped out revenue wise. How are you going to recoup $2B from this franchise?
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Post by Danjal on Sept 10, 2014 2:37:58 GMT
I think this is a shit buy for MS as minecraft is tapped out revenue wise. How are you going to recoup $2B from this franchise? PS4 sales of Minecraft *EDIT* A fun little tidbit I found when reading through the Feed-The-Beast forums (One of the big communities that handles modpacks) is this: While ofcourse this doesn't mean anything necessarily, its a thought that crossed my mind aswell. With so many obviously skilled hands working on mods. And such a vested interest in the community and the success of their mods. Its only a matter of time before some of these modmakers band together to share resources. The modpacks were the first step, but its not that strange of an idea to take it one step further. They clearly have the skills to do it, and if they can get it off the ground they'd be able to get the revenue aswell. That would be quite a hilarious turn of events, if the "community" (or atleast part of it) would simply move away from Minecraft entirely to create their own thing.
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zeruelb
Junior Apprentice
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Post by zeruelb on Sept 10, 2014 5:54:22 GMT
Don't trust any modmaker promising anything. Eloraam, the creator of RedPower posted screens of her Game engine last year, nothing has been heard of that since, neither was RedPower updated to run on any newer MC versions, but it was promised it would. Same goes with XyCraft, a Mod that basically intended to add a powernetwork... and delivered just new Ore Blocks to the public. Or EE3 from Pahimar. That thing still does... nothing. Feed the beast on the other hand made only the first step to provide a launcher. It's original intend was to make a Mappack as well as "distributing donations amongst devs" which, tada, never got done. Instead they put out merchandise after merchandise, selling theirselves to some eSport stuff and never deliver anything again (besides the launcher).
They could do their work, but to be honest, with the current mindset, it would be a total mess. There are even Developers fighting eachother, so if you have mods from those installed, they would modify the other mods to be crashing, put out Server Bans for the other Developer or just Crashing Minecraft with errormessages.
To have the skill to do something is just not nearly enough. Thats also something that could be learned from Godus...
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Lord Ba'al
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Post by Lord Ba'al on Sept 11, 2014 19:15:22 GMT
Don't forget all the merchandising. Little Minecraft dolls, t-shirts, mugs, whatever. Maybe someone wants to make a tv series off it for kids.
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Post by Danjal on Sept 11, 2014 19:17:17 GMT
Merchandising only works if there's a market thats interested. As soon as Microsofts monetization stance takes effect - the discontinued existence of youtubers doing minecraft content will drastically reduce the popularity and therefor success of any merchandise.
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Post by 13thGeneral on Sept 16, 2014 13:21:58 GMT
Turns out Notch is just too humble to carry such a large weight on his shoulders; he just wants to be free to create without pressure or scrutiny. Both Minecraft and Mojang, and his infamy, became larger than he was comfortable with. I think what he did, tho it arguably might ultimately corrupt what Minecraft stands for to gamers, is really quite understandable.
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Post by Danjal on Sept 16, 2014 13:59:30 GMT
Yea I agree. From Notch's standpoint I can totally understand his decision. He has had agreeable business dealings with Microsoft and as such might feel that they were in the best position to deal with. He knew that Microsoft has a vested interest in the success of Minecraft as the game has been in the top selling charts for their consoles ever since it launched on it.
On top of that, because Microsoft has a vested interest - Microsoft is also far more likely to bid higher on obtaining this. Combined with that, it seems like a safe bet that Microsoft wouldn't want to burn down a $2½ billion dollar investment by breaking it down. So that would reassure him that his 'baby' would be in relative safe hands.
Now that said, Microsoft has a history of taking in well-running franchises and well... Destroying them. Halo hasn't been doing too well and Fable has been completely ruined. On top of that as a corporation, their interests are in profits - it doesn't matter how popular Minecraft is. Microsoft will want a return on their investment and probably doesn't want to wait 20 years to get that.
So its safe to assume that Microsoft is going to look for ways to wring money out of the IP. A sequel is one of the assumed courses of actions - though I'm dubious of its chances on success. A too expensive or too demanding title would massively decrease the sales potential. Alternately its looking at micro-transactions. Which would in all likelyhood also shatter the current community, with many unwilling or unable to cash out for the content they've been getting for free all this time.
Its really waiting on what Microsoft's next move is in this. What is this acquisition going to mean for all the youtubers/streamers and modmakers. What are Microsoft's plans for the future. Perhaps to a lesser extent - what is Microsoft going to do with Scrolls and Cobalt?
And a final interesting one - how will SONY respond to all of this. Based on what we've been told Microsoft seems not to be inclined to cancel the PS4 and Vita support/release - but is Sony willing to share such revenue with such a competitor as Microsoft?
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Post by earlparvisjam on Sept 16, 2014 17:20:00 GMT
Yea I agree. From Notch's standpoint I can totally understand his decision. He has had agreeable business dealings with Microsoft and as such might feel that they were in the best position to deal with. He knew that Microsoft has a vested interest in the success of Minecraft as the game has been in the top selling charts for their consoles ever since it launched on it. On top of that, because Microsoft has a vested interest - Microsoft is also far more likely to bid higher on obtaining this. Combined with that, it seems like a safe bet that Microsoft wouldn't want to burn down a $2½ billion dollar investment by breaking it down. So that would reassure him that his 'baby' would be in relative safe hands. Now that said, Microsoft has a history of taking in well-running franchises and well... Destroying them. Halo hasn't been doing too well and Fable has been completely ruined. On top of that as a corporation, their interests are in profits - it doesn't matter how popular Minecraft is. Microsoft will want a return on their investment and probably doesn't want to wait 20 years to get that. So its safe to assume that Microsoft is going to look for ways to wring money out of the IP. A sequel is one of the assumed courses of actions - though I'm dubious of its chances on success. A too expensive or too demanding title would massively decrease the sales potential. Alternately its looking at micro-transactions. Which would in all likelyhood also shatter the current community, with many unwilling or unable to cash out for the content they've been getting for free all this time. Its really waiting on what Microsoft's next move is in this. What is this acquisition going to mean for all the youtubers/streamers and modmakers. What are Microsoft's plans for the future. Perhaps to a lesser extent - what is Microsoft going to do with Scrolls and Cobalt? And a final interesting one - how will SONY respond to all of this. Based on what we've been told Microsoft seems not to be inclined to cancel the PS4 and Vita support/release - but is Sony willing to share such revenue with such a competitor as Microsoft? I don't think Sony has to worry about playing nice with Microsoft. It's the other way around. The court of public opinion is already looking at the acquisition as MS ruining things. If MS kills multi-platform support, there will be backlash, regardless of any other considerations. MS needs a presence on Sony platforms but Sony doesn't need a Microsoft bought title on its platform. I'm still confused how MS thinks it's going to be able to generate enough to make this purchase profitable. Even if they take Minecraft and rebuild it from the ground up and release it as MC2, it's not going to make that amount of bank. The only thing I can see is some sort of tie-in or third party market they've plans for. Maybe, they're planning to integrate it into their Avatar market as a starting point and try to flagship it as some sort of marketing/merchandising platform for some new line of content...
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Post by Danjal on Sept 16, 2014 17:23:36 GMT
Well isn't that the thing. If Sony decides that they don't care for sharing revenue with Microsoft - its Microsoft that will carry the brunt of the consequences for "killing Minecraft on playstation". As such, its in Microsofts best interest to keep that particular project alive, whereas Sony has less consequences (other than financial ones) by denying Minecraft.
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Post by 13thGeneral on Sept 16, 2014 17:57:05 GMT
As was mentioned, they can always take it in a direction like Lego did. Movies, Pop-Culture Themed DLC, more toys, games loosely based on the namesake, etc... it's a Goldmine.
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Post by Danjal on Sept 16, 2014 18:36:03 GMT
I think the problem with that is that there's a conflict in audience. Like I mentioned above, most kids love Minecraft because their favorite youtube personality plays it or because their friends play it. But without that outside motivator, interest will drop sooner or later.
A paid content injection? I have a hard time seeing the majority of the 50+ million users sticking with it. Going the Lego route is something they can only afford to do if they can guarantee the retention.
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zeruelb
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Post by zeruelb on Sept 17, 2014 6:30:50 GMT
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